United States Confirms Continuation of Sentinel ICBM Development
The Continuation of the Sentinel ICBM Development Amid Cost Overruns.
Disclaimer: This article aims to provide a detailed and neutral analysis on the ongoing development of the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not endorse or oppose the program. The information contained herein is based on the latest available data and official statements.
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The United States has confirmed it will continue with the development of the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program despite encountering cost overruns. Initially estimated at a considerably lower figure, the Pentagon now discloses that the program's cost has surged by 81%, reaching $140.9 billion. This represents a drastic increase from the initial estimation made in September 2020. Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief, William LaPlante, has certified the necessity of the program's continuation, citing national security concerns as the primary reason. This decision was announced following a six-month review mandated by statutory requirements after the program breached the Nunn-McCurdy Act thresholds earlier this year.
The Sentinel ICBM program's cost overrun was initially projected to be 37% earlier this year. Recent assessments indicate that the actual overrun stands at 81%. The Air Force, which is primarily responsible for the program, is now tasked with managing these increased costs. The Nunn-McCurdy Act stipulates that the Pentagon must notify lawmakers if a program experiences a cost or schedule overrun of more than 15%. A breach over 15% is classified as "significant," while a breach exceeding 30% is deemed "critical." In cases of critical breaches, the Secretary of Defense must either cancel the program or certify its continuation as essential for national security.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin delegated the certification function to William LaPlante, who subsequently confirmed that the Sentinel ICBM program must proceed. Alongside the certification, LaPlante rescinded the program's Milestone B and directed the Air Force to devise a restructuring plan. This plan aims to mitigate some of the costs without altering the program's fundamental objectives. Andrew Hunter, the Air Force acquisition chief, noted that the final cost is expected to remain close to the new estimate despite efforts to reduce the overrun. The restructuring process is anticipated to take approximately 18 months to two years, during which work on the Sentinel will continue.
Initially, the program was expected to face a delay of two years. However, the latest estimates suggest that the delay could extend to three years. Preserving the program's schedule will be a key consideration during the restructuring phase, revealing the complexity and urgency of the task at hand. Northrop Grumman, the prime contractor for the Sentinel ICBM program, remains responsible for the missile's design, development, integration, and testing, as well as the associated basing infrastructure.
Justification for Continuation
William LaPlante provided several reasons for certifying the continuation of the Sentinel ICBM program:
National Security: The program is deemed essential for the nation's security.
Lack of Alternatives: There are no alternative programs capable of meeting the requirements at a lower cost.
Reasonable Cost Estimates: The director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation agrees that the new cost estimates are reasonable.
Priority Status: The program holds a higher priority compared to other programs whose funding might need to be reduced to accommodate the cost growth.
Management Structure: The program’s management structure is considered adequate to manage and control the acquisition unit cost.
During the review, LaPlante's team evaluated “about four to five different options” as potential alternatives to the Sentinel ICBM program. These alternatives included extending the life of the aging Minuteman III missiles until 2070, exploring hybrid options involving different ground facilities, and considering mobile versus fixed missile systems. None of these alternatives were found to meet the necessary requirements at a reasonable cost. The program’s continuation is certified based on multiple factors, including the lack of viable alternatives and the critical need to maintain a robust and modernized nuclear deterrent.
As the program moves forward, the Pentagon and the Air Force will need to navigate the challenges associated with restructuring and managing the increased costs. The next 18 months to two years will be critical in determining the program's trajectory and ensuring its alignment with national defense priorities.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is based on official statements and the latest available data. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an endorsement or opposition to the Sentinel ICBM program.
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