Solid read on the Venezuela wildcard. The counterintutive price action makes sense when u factor in the OPEC+ supply glut, but man the asymmetric risk setup here is real. Personally saw similar dynamics in 2019 when Iran sanctions got priced in then out then back in within weeks. Seems like the market is fading the blockades enforcement before its evn tested, which could flip fast if China actually pushes a convoy through.
Solid read on the Venezuela wildcard. The counterintutive price action makes sense when u factor in the OPEC+ supply glut, but man the asymmetric risk setup here is real. Personally saw similar dynamics in 2019 when Iran sanctions got priced in then out then back in within weeks. Seems like the market is fading the blockades enforcement before its evn tested, which could flip fast if China actually pushes a convoy through.